That might surprise you if you’re a casual NFL player, but it shouldn’t. The Packers are certainly the in-form team, and the way they are playing right now, they will not only win the game on Sunday, but easily cover the spread. They might even be playing well enough that you’re tempted to buy the over/under, which seems a bit high to me, given the quality of the two defenses on display. Right, that’s the obvious out of the way. Let’s dig a little deeper and see if we can find a nugget or two to make it a Super Bowl happy one.

The Packers thrive on big plays, but managed just two in Week 17, a 20-yarder to Donald Driver and a 46-yarder to Greg Jennings that helped set up that late-game-winning touchdown. Things probably won’t be much different on Sunday. The Bears’ Cover-2 base defense is designed to not allow big plays, so while Rodgers is capable of putting up some decent yards, it probably won’t be easy. Green Bay’s offense isn’t what the Bears saw in Week 17. The Packers unveiled running back James Starks in the wild-card game against Philadelphia to devastating effect. Starks didn’t run as effectively last week in Atlanta, and the Bears rank second overall against the run, so don’t expect him to run wild at Soldier Field. What it does do, however, is bring a semblance of balance to the unit, something the Bears will have to keep in mind.

Check the line on running back James Starks for the Packers. It’s going to be low because the Steelers are the best team in the NFL against the run. More worrisome for the Packers, the Starks bubble appears to have already burst. He exploded on the scene in the playoff win against Philadelphia, but in two games since, against Atlanta and Chicago, he’s averaged just under 3 yards per carry. He will fight to match that against the Steelers. Even worse news for Starks’ sponsors is that he gets out of the game in goal-line situations, so I don’t think he’s worth it in terms of scoring a touchdown. You’d be better off with John Kuhn’s human excavator.

So that’s the bad news. The good news for Green Bay is that you can move the ball through the air against the Steelers. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is playing at a very high level and has many weapons at his disposal. Picking the hot receiver is always the tricky challenge when he bets on the Packers. You know Rodgers will get the yardage from him. It’s just a matter of who’s at the end of his passes. I have a feeling he’s going to be the obvious suspect, Greg Jennings. Pittsburgh’s scheme puts a lot of pressure on their corners and consequently they are often isolated in single coverage. Their best cover man is Ike Taylor, and I’d be surprised if they had Taylor covering Jennings at all times, though that strategy worked pretty well for Chicago, which used Charles Tillman in that way.

But the weak link is on the other side, and he often burns Bryant McFadden. He’ll need help covering for Jennings, and he may not get much. This, to me, is one of the key matchups of the entire game. McFadden alone can’t take on Jennings, certainly not because of sheer speed, and probably not because of his ability to work the wrinkles in one area. Will the Steelers give him any safety help? They tend not to. The other option would be to bring in an additional defensive back and play nickel. It’s an interesting idea: being in nickel almost dares the other team to run on you. Would the Packers take that bait? How compromised would the Steelers’ zoning scheme be if they played a lot of nickel? The man who knows is Pittsburgh defensive mastermind Dick LeBeau, and if I had a bug in his office, I’d be cleaning up Sporting Index myself. But I don’t, so I’m going to follow a hunch. I think he’s going to play a lot to try to contain Rodgers and the passing game. Don’t blame me if I’m wrong: LeBeau is the genius, not me!

What really hurts the Steelers’ chances is another injury to their offensive line. Center Maurkice Pouncey, their best lineman by a field mile, won’t make it after the serious ankle injury last time out. The Steelers are keeping their fingers crossed, but he has two hopes: slim and none, and Slim couldn’t get a hotel reservation in Dallas last time I checked. That means they will have four substitutes playing in the Big Game. They’ve won with a makeshift offensive line before, two years ago against the Cardinals, but Arizona didn’t bring the kind of heat the Packers have. They have a defensive scheme almost identical to the Steelers, based on creating errors and turnovers.

Already struggling at tackle, the inside line will now be compromised by Pouncey’s absence. Replacement Doug Legursky is a fighter, but he’s not a prolific run blocker, which could be bad news if you think Pittsburgh running back Rashard Mendenhall is going to be the key to the game. It’s also bad news for Ben Roethlisberger, who will be hit hard and often. Big Ben takes bags: that’s part of his game. But the Packers have dedicated this week to improving their tackling, to make sure that when they get the big man where they want him, they’ll take him down. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Ben gets caught six times. Maybe even more so if, as I suspect, the Steelers chase the game in the second half.

Given the pressure you will face, don’t be surprised if Ben is forced to do a lot of reading and checking. You could do a lot worse than have tight end Heath Miller as Pittsburgh’s leading receiver in terms of receptions, if not yards. However, if Ben has time, he should watch out for Mike Wallace, who has the incredible speed to get behind the Green Bay secondary. A reception could give him more yards than Miller’s five.

I’m also thinking there’s an early touchdown on this one. Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy graduated from the West Coast school of offense, which means the first 15 plays are often written ahead of time. He won’t be surprised if his initial impulse announces points. That’s also the best time to get to the Steelers’ defense, as LeBeau likes to take a look at what he’s doing on offense, and then proceed to stop him from doing it.

I’m not sure if the Steelers will score early or not. Last time, they put together a 10-minute scoring drive in the first series against the Jets. The week before, against Baltimore, they didn’t show up until the second half.

Whatever it is, that’s it for the NFL until September (and I hope the threat of a player lockout goes away before next season). I hope my songs have helped you gain a few pounds. Most of them have been based on sensible logic rather than just gut feeling, but as you probably know, there’s very little logic to football at this level. Next season, assuming Sporting Index is still in business, as I have definitely not bankrupted them, I will look to do even better. And yes, I say that every year……..