Betting on the UFC is getting bigger with every event. With UFC 116 next weekend, there’s no reason to think the betting action will be at an all-time high. After nearly a year out of the Octagon, UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar makes his long-awaited return this Saturday night. Arguably the biggest fight in mixed martial arts (MMA) history, online sportsbooks expect record-breaking MMA betting action. His opponent is champion batting and acting Shane Carwin.

This fight was supposed to happen last fall; however, Lesnar was forced to withdraw due to a near-fatal intestinal disease. Now, supposedly 100%, Lesnar is ready to return to the Octagon with knockout specialist Carwin.

Due to Lesnar’s long layoff, Carwin won the interim heavyweight title by knocking out former champion Frank Mir in the first round last March. He now has to unify the belts and see who is the best heavyweight in the UFC. According to online sportsbooks, it appears that title belongs to Lesnar, as he is the -150 favorite. However, early bettors did not agree to bet on the underdog Carwin. Currently you can bet on Carwin at +120.

If you’ve seen Carwin fight, you can’t argue why early bettors took advantage of his generous betting odds. All Carwin has done as a professional fighter is amassed an impeccable 12-0 record. Even more impressive is the fact that all 12 of his wins ended in the first round. Since he entered the UFC four fights ago, he’s knocked out or TKO’d every one of his opponents in devastating fashion.

Lesnar, the only superstar for World Wrestling Entertainment, is still very raw. He’s been beating guys because of his size, strength and athleticism. However, he was an All-American amateur wrestler in college and won the NCAA heavyweight championship in 2000, so he has the chops to dominate if the fight goes to the ground. A physically imposing force, Lesnar has just four fights under his belt in the UFC with a 3-1 record. In the Octagon, he just uses his raw strength to overpower his opponent, often leading to a devastating ground.

At 265 pounds with a physique straight out of the NFL, Carwin is probably the only heavyweight in the UFC who has a chance against Lesnar physically. Carwin also comes from a successful amateur wrestling record winning the NCAA Division II National Championship in 1999.
When calculating these probabilities, one must consider a few questions:

1. If the fight goes past the first round, what will Carwin look like?

Once again, Carwin has yet to answer the second round bell due to finishing each of his 12 fights in the first round. If he can’t finish Lesnar off early, how is he going to do it?

2. What kind of chin does Lesnar have?

With the biggest fists in the UFC, it’s no secret that Carwin will be looking for an early KO. Brock hasn’t faced anyone with the punching power that Carwin possesses and frankly hasn’t been hit hard thus far. How will Lesnar react if Carwin lands a square to the jaw?

3. Will Lesnar’s firing affect his performance?

Lesnar last fought on July 11, 2009. Will he have ‘ring rust’ and has his near-fatal illness seriously affected his body? No matter how hard they train, UFC fighters often have a hard time coming back from long rest periods.

For those betting on this fight, don’t be surprised if the odds go up a bit. It is doubtful that they will go any further. Bookies hope the back money will come from UFC rookie bettors on Lesnar’s biggest name, thus increasing the value of Carwin’s bets as the fight approaches.

Pick: Lesnar (-150)

Despite Carwin’s size and punching prowess, Lesnar is too big. He expects Lesnar to dominate Carwin against the cage and eventually take the fight to the ground. Once on the ground, Lesnar will use his superior wrestling skills and win via ground TKO and the pound.