While many factors must be considered and used when determining the handicap of a horse race, one angle that should not be overlooked is the pace mix and setting of the race. Pace simply means the speed at which each horse runs during each of the segments of the race. The race, of course, is divided into fractions of the total distance, usually about 2 furlongs each.

The reason why pace is important is because each racetrack has its own quirks that make certain racing styles and pace combinations more successful. It is also important because horses often have a preferred racing style and if they can run according to that style, they usually perform better. Make a horse who likes to run in front work too hard to maintain that position and the horse will tire before he finishes the race. On the other hand, give a front runner and an easy trip to the lead and he’ll be hard to beat.

A common mistake pace forecasters make, especially when beginning to use pace statistics, is to simply add up the expected pace figures for each horse to arrive at each runner’s total. Using speed figures for pace, as some past performances do now, suppose a horse has a projected pace of 90 for the first quarter, 80 for the second quarter, and 70 for the last 2 furlongs of a 6 furlong race. Should we just average these numbers or add them up?

Let’s say another horse will run faster in the later stages and has the same figures, but in reverse. He would show a projected 70 in the first quarter, an 80 in the second quarter, and finally a 90 to finish the race. If we add the pace figures for both horses, we find that each has a 240 which, when divided by the three calls, will be 80.

But will every horse end up the same? Maybe, but assuming based on those numbers just doesn’t work. Pace handicap should be done holistically and you should look at the big picture, all the runners, and decide how each horse’s position and pace will affect the others. It requires experience, practice and skill. You must remember that the clashes will affect the amount of energy that each runner uses in each part of the race.

If the horse that usually gets an 80 in the first quarter must produce a 90 to keep his position where he likes to run, he can’t just subtract 10 points from the next quarter to make up for that. That kind of effort can seriously tire the runner and they can fade and produce a speed figure of 60 for the last quarter mile.